Author: Harold Pine

Tariffs – A Complex Path Forward Trade Deficits and Tariffs: A Billionaire’s Perspective Two of America’s most successful investors – Ray Dalio and Warren Buffett – have warned about the dangers of persistent trade deficits and offered their perspectives on tariffs as a potential remedy. Despite their different investment approaches, both billionaires share concerns about… READ MORE

Let’s examine three pivotal moments in market history. The Federal Reserve’s current trajectory has favored easing, though persistent inflation might force a course correction. Drawing parallels, 1997 emerged from an aggressive tightening phase in ’94, followed by two prosperous years driven by the Dot Com revolution. Similarly, 2022 witnessed the completion of a Fed tightening… READ MORE

Into Murky Water We Wade Nothing today can be more controversial than politics.  What is the old saying “never talk politics or religion”. The other side of that is long-term investing, Fed, and government policy matters.  I’ve tackled plenty of Fed policy issues and have written extensively about such matters.  Today we take the leap… READ MORE

Early in 2024, I wrote that while many pundits felt we were entering a 1970s style stagflation, I wrote it felt more like 1999.  In the first half of the year, it has played out much that way.  That being said 6 months does not make a decade.  There is still plenty of time left… READ MORE

This paper is fairly technical, my apologies. Additionally, there is content that you may find alarming. It is not there to scare you because this could be a long way off. It is meant to bring things to forefront as we navigate high asset prices and may leave gains on table in the short run… READ MORE

The debate surrounding recession and soft landing continues.  Mind you, professional economists are notoriously bad at predicting recessions.  Why would we be any better?  However, even if you can’t predict a recession, you can at least examine the data and determine if one is within reason based on that data.  We highlight a few items… READ MORE